Half of all teachers to leave in the next four years

Almost half of Scotland's teachers are set to leave the profession in the next four years, leading to an unprecedented recruitment crisis.

Official Scottish Government projections show that 25,000 of the country's 53,000 primary and secondary teachers will either reach retirement age by 2013, or leave for other reasons.

The sharp increase reflects the general age profile of workers across the public sector, which will also lead to increasing numbers of health service staff - including doctors - and police officers reaching retirement age over the next few years.
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The problem has already sparked concern over the impact on pensions with calls for public sector workers to work on past retirement age or contribute more to final salary schemes.

However, the impending increase in retirement age has particular significance in Scottish education because it comes at a time when recruitment is already in turmoil.

Although thousands of teachers are expected to retire, hundreds of newly qualified teachers have been unable to get jobs in recent months.

The lack of new posts has led to accusations that the Scottish Government has misjudged the number of new teachers required, but the latest figures show that more, rather than fewer, teachers will need to be trained in future years to meet the shortfall.

Education Secretary Fiona Hyslop told The Herald the turnover would result in a "massive change" in the demographic of Scotland's teachers.

"We are on the cusp of a seismic change in teaching in Scotland and we must be prepared to meet the challenges which will face us in recruitment," she said. "Having the correct number of teachers in the right place at the right time has always been a fine art but this government is committed to tackling the anomalies which arise.

"Our priority is the education of the children in our schools and therefore ensuring that we have enough teachers coming through to maintain teacher numbers in the face of a rise in retirement."

However, Ken Cunningham, general-secretary of School Leaders Scotland, which represents secondary headteachers, said more sophisticated workforce planning was required.

"It is absolutely pointless to educate teaching graduates so they can hang about for the next few years waiting for a job to turn up when someone retires," he said.

And Ronnie Smith, general- secretary of the Educational Institute of Scotland, said: "The age profile of the profession is such that there will be significant numbers leaving over the next few years and the only way to deal with this is to train more teachers."

Figures released last summer showed 23,000 teachers in Scottish schools are aged 50 or over, with only 2821 under the age of 25. The average age of a teacher in Scotland in 2007 was 43.